The New York Times described it as “a stunning example of the global economy’s fragile dependence on certain software, and the cascading effect it can have when things go wrong.”

Regular readers of this magazine, and of this column in particular, will know where I am going with this: like Windows, GPS — and, more broadly, GNSS — presents a single point of failure for many systems. That is, if GPS fails, it will stop those entire systems from working.

Possible challenges and threats to GPS use include space weather; interference/jamming and/or spoofing of receivers; error or failure of satellites, monitoring, or control; and, in the most extreme case, an attack on satellites, monitoring, or control.

The National Space-Based PNT Advisory Board continues to focus its efforts on its excellent PTA strategy: to protect (“prevent or remove conditions that degrade, distort, or deny GPS use”), toughen (“make GPS use more robust against challenges and threats”), and augment (“provision of GPS enhancements as well as provision and use of alternate [PNT] sources that complement, back up, or replace (partly or entirely) use of GPS”) civil uses of GPS. More on that soon.

Meanwhile, others are urging we think of GNSS as only one of several complementary means to achieve the mission of positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) with accuracy, availability, integrity, continuity and coverage. For that perspective, see Mitch Narins’ piece. He writes that we should focus “on services that are not space-based, operate in different areas of the spectrum, are capable of higher power, and can be installed and evolved more quickly to mitigate emerging threats.”

The European Space Agency’s recent PNT Vision 2035 paper, written by a panel of independent external PNT experts to advise next year’s ESA Ministerial Conference, summarizes European discussions on PNT in the past several years. In the words of Luis Mayo, the chair of the advisory committee that wrote the report, “there is more to PNT than satellite navigation.” While we must “sustain the existing satellite-based navigation systems,” he argues, we should also promote “the development of alternative independent PNT systems.” Read a short interview with Mayo by Dana Goward, starting on page 19.

Yet other efforts integrate GNSS with different, independent techniques to create new synergies. One example is ESA’s Genesis multi-modal space mission, which aims to improve geodetic applications by collocating on board a single well-calibrated satellite the four space-based geodetic techniques: GNSS, very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

“This first-time collocation in space will establish precise and stable ties among these key techniques,” write the authors of this quarter’s “Innovation” column.

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Photo: BrianAJackson / iStock / Getty Images Plus / Getty Images

All maritime navigators (should) know by heart Rule 5 of the 1972 Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (Colregs for short): “Every vessel shall at all times maintain a proper lookout by sight and hearing as well as by all available means appropriate in the prevailing circumstances and conditions so as to make a full appraisal of the situation and of the risk of collision.”

Analogously, now that positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) data have become essential to the functioning of critical infrastructure and many other aspects of advanced industrial economies, it is imperative that we use “all available means” to maintain and improve that data’s accuracy, integrity, availability, continuity and coverage.

Given the inherent limitations of GNSS and the growing threat of jamming and spoofing, those means must also include other technologies, both legacy and emerging — such as L-band and S-band broadcasts from GEO and LEO satellites, fiber-optic timing systems, optical-based absolute positioning solutions, map-matching databases, inertial measuring units (IMUs), ultra-wideband and terrestrial radiofrequency (RF) technologies across low frequency (LF), medium frequency (MF), ultra-high frequency (UHF) and Wi-Fi/802.11 spectrum bands.

In March 2024, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) — the lead for civil PNT requirements in the United States — released its updated Complementary PNT Action Plan: DOT Actions to Drive CPNT Adoption. It builds on Executive Order 13905, Strengthening National Resilience Through Responsible Use of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Services; Space Policy Directive 7, The United States Space-Based Positioning, Navigation and Timing Policy; and DOT’s own 2021 report to Congress, Complementary PNT and GPS Backup Technologies Demonstration Report.

DOT’s Action Plan establishes five broad lines of effort:

1. Stakeholder engagement

2. Specs and standards development

3. Field trial and test range development

4. Establish a Federal PNT Services Clearinghouse

5. Domain-specific CPNT Services acquisition support

The plan explicitly extends the National Space-Based PNT Advisory Board’s chosen strategy of “protect, toughen, and augment” (PTA) to “protect, toughen, augment, and adopt” (PTAA).

It points out that “[s]trengths and vulnerabilities of existing complementary PNT sources can vary based on the specific application and operating environment.” For example, a ship at sea need not worry about multipath and can tolerate relatively large position errors that are unacceptable for, say, an autonomous car. The latter, however, can take advantage of nearby transmitters for ground-based solutions, as well as landmarks for self-localization. Different options for different needs.

On the last page, in a chart illustrating its “preliminary milestones and functional activities associated with implementing this action plan,” DOT lists eLoran infrastructure as one of the areas of R&D — starting with a demonstration project in the last quarter of 2023 followed by, in 2024 and 2025, “evaluate eLoran service against CPNT measures of effectiveness.”

eLoran, too. All available means.

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Luccio

A May 16 article in The Wall Street Journal titled “Russia Launched Research Spacecraft for Antisatellite Nuclear Weapon Two Years Ago, U.S. Officials Say,” reported that in February 2022, shortly before it invaded Ukraine, Russia launched Cosmos-2553, “designed to test components for a potential antisatellite weapon that would carry a nuclear device.” It linked the launch to a continuing Russian nuclear antisatellite program and said that, if deployed, the weapon “would give Moscow the ability to destroy hundreds of satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO) with a nuclear blast.”

“The Pentagon,” the article pointed out, “has become increasingly reliant on commercial satellites.” In LEO, it reported, there are almost 6,700 U.S. satellites, while China has 780 and Russia only 149. Therefore, the Russians would have a lot less to lose should they choose to explode a nuclear weapon in LEO.

A May 17 article in The New York Times was titled “New Star Wars Plan: Pentagon Rushes to Counter Threats in Orbit.” The subhead read: “Citing rapid advances by China and Russia, the United States is building an extensive capacity to fight battles in space.” It said that, in a major shift in military operations, the Defense Department “is looking to acquire a new generation of ground- and space-based tools that will allow it to defend its satellite network from attack and, if necessary, to disrupt or disable enemy spacecraft in orbit.” Meanwhile, “both Russia and China have already tested or deployed systems such as ground-based high-energy lasers, antisatellite missiles or maneuverable satellites that could be used to disrupt [U.S.] space assets.”

The decision to strengthen U.S. warfighting capacity in space, it said, is driven mostly by China’s expanding fleet of military tools in space, which threatens to prevent U.S. Navy operations in the Western Pacific. “The Pentagon is separately working to launch a new generation of military satellites that can maneuver, be refueled while in space or have robotic arms that could reach out and grab — and potentially disrupt — an enemy satellite.”

These are all reasons to quickly develop and deploy a wide mix of complementary PNT solutions that would lessen reliance on GNSS satellites and, therefore, make them less of a target.

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Matteo Luccio

In the coming months, we will steadily increase our coverage of complementary PNT companies, products and services, including those based on low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites, because they are an increasingly important component of the PNT industry. We will start by expanding our coverage of this area on our website and in our digital newsletters, then increase coverage in our print editions.

One proposal that has received scant attention, including from this magazine, is to set up a ground-based, cryptographically protected GPS High Accuracy and Robustness Service (HARS) using the internet to distribute data already being produced by the U.S. government and government-sponsored organizations. This was the subject of a white paper released in May 2023 by the National Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Advisory Board.

The paper argued that GPS is “falling behind” other GNSS because it relies on augmentation by third-party systems rather than providing such specialized advanced services itself, as BeiDou and Galileo do. While nearly all GNSS chips currently acquire first GPS signals, then those from other systems, deployment by BeiDou and Galileo of sub-meter accuracy services may lead chip manufacturers to reverse this order. If they do, the paper argued, it will cause the U.S. government to lose its strategic advantage in this area and put it in the same position that led the Chinese and European governments to launch their own GNSS programs.

The paper proposed a HARS that would remove satellite orbit and clock errors, ionospheric errors, and tropospheric errors and enhance the ability of GNSS receivers to operate in challenging conditions. This approach, the paper says, could allow Precise Point Positioning (PPP), authentication, and more. It would be “secure and less sensitive to radio noise and disruptions,” protect critical infrastructure, and enable new applications, such as “lane-dependent route guidance in automobile navigation and emergency vehicle guidance.” Additionally, by delivering, along with the corrections, cryptographically signed ephemeris on the same channel, the system would solve the problem of spoofed navigation data.

All of this could be done “without adding cost and complexity to GPS itself” resulting in “a world-class HARS at a small fraction of the cost or time, compared to implementing it on new GPS satellites.” The paper asked for funding for this new service and an agency to operate it, such as the U.S. Space Force or the federal Department of Transportation.

I thank John Betz, Ph.D., of MITRE, for bringing the PNT Advisory Board’s white paper on HARS to my attention. It can be found here.

<p>The post First Fix: GPS can stay first first appeared on GPS World.</p>

Matteo Luccio

The article “Starburst” in the March 4 issue of The New Yorker, written by staff writer Kathryn Schulz, details how the next big solar storm could devastate the U.S. power grid and communication systems and questions whether we are prepared for it. Schulz focuses repeatedly on the key role of GNSS and how devastating it would be if their signals were disrupted by a solar storm. She points out that a large solar storm has not occurred since widespread electrification, let alone in the digital age, and that some scientists now believe there is an approximately 12% chance of an extreme geomagnetic storm striking Earth in the next decade. “The Army,” Schulz wrote, “concerned about overreliance on vulnerable technologies, has reinstated courses in orienteering, and the Navy has resumed teaching sailors how to use a sextant.”

A March 12 article in WISPOLITICS — which bills itself as “Wisconsin’s Premier Political News Service” — reports on a letter from the chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, Mike Gallagher, to Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel. Following reports that U.S. cell phones and other devices are receiving and processing signals from Chinese and Russian GNSS satellites, Gallagher asked Rosenworcel whether it is “contrary to FCC rules for handsets and other devices to receive and process signals from unauthorized GNSS constellations.” I have long wondered the same thing. If any of you readers has a firm understanding of this issue, please let me know. Gallagher also asked whether it is “the responsibility of component vendors, device makers, or carriers to ensure that such signals are not received and processed by devices that use GNSS” and whether the FCC has taken any enforcement actions on this matter.

A March 14 article by Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis in The Wall Street Journal warns that, as its headline says, “Drone Swarms Are About to Change the Balance of Military Power.” Ackerman, a Marine veteran, is the author of numerous books and a senior fellow at Yale’s Jackson School of Global Affairs. Admiral Stavridis, U.S. Navy (ret.), was the 16th Supreme Allied Commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is a partner at the Carlyle Group. “Drones have become suddenly ubiquitous on the battlefield — but we are only at the dawn of this new age in warfare,” they wrote. “[D]ozens or hundreds of drones in AI-directed swarms will have the capacity to overwhelm defenses and destroy even advanced platforms. Nations that depend on large, expensive systems like aircraft carriers, stealth aircraft or even battle tanks could find themselves vulnerable against an adversary who deploys a variety of low-cost, easily-dispersed and long-range unmanned weapons.” While the article focuses on AI and does not mention GNSS, the latter is a key enabling technology for UAVs, as readers of this magazine know well.

<p>The post First Fix: Three recent articles that prove GNSS is constantly in the news first appeared on GPS World.</p>

Artist impression; size of debris exaggerated as compared to Earth. (Image: ESA)

So much going on up there!

On Jan.11, speaking at a press briefing in Paris, Javier Benedicto, director of navigation for the European Space Agency (ESA), announced the agency had completed the procurement process for the low-Earth Orbit Positioning Navigation and Timing (LEO PNT) program. ESA expects to have the new LEO PNT demonstration satellites, which will broadcast signals over several frequency bands, up and running by 2026. A positive outcome will most likely lead to the procurement and deployment of a full European LEO PNT constellation for global services.

Also in January, news broke that Google and two of the largest mobile network operators in the world, AT&T and Vodafone, had invested more than $200 million in AST SpaceMobile’s cellular broadband network based on LEO satellites and accessible directly by smartphones. AST SpaceMobile already operates the largest-ever commercial communications array in LEO, the BlueWalker 3 satellite, which, due to its size and brightness, is alarming astronomers.

On Feb. 21, The New York Times reported about U.S. warnings to its allies that Russia might deploy a nuclear weapon in orbit this year. According to the paper, U.S. intelligence agencies told their closest European allies that, “if Russia is going to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit, it will probably do so this year — but that it might instead launch a harmless ‘dummy’ warhead into orbit to leave the West guessing about its capabilities.” A space weapon nested inside a satellite could destroy, jam, or otherwise disable dozens or hundreds of commercial and military satellites in LEO, such as the Starlink satellites that are revolutionizing global communications. See Dana Goward’s analysis.

The next day, Tim Crain, chief technology officer of the Houston-based company Intuitive Machines announced, “Houston, Odysseus has found its new home.” For the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972, a U.S.-built spacecraft had landed on the moon. Odysseus, described by the Times as “a bit bigger than a telephone booth,” (which most people under the age of 20 have never seen), was later confirmed to be upright and sending images. It was delivered into lunar orbit by a SpaceX rocket. NASA hopes this mission will help inaugurate a new era of economical spaceflights around the solar system. Intuitive Machines is one of several small companies the agency has hired to transport instruments to reconnoiter the surface of Earth’s only natural satellite in preparation for the return of NASA astronauts.

My highly synthetic description of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aircraft tracking systems in last month’s First Fix was a bit muddled. Fortunately, I can count on our Editorial Advisory Board member Mitch Narins to clarify:

FAA systems determine an aircraft’s position using a combination of independent and dependent surveillance. Independent surveillance does not require the “cooperation” of the aircraft (e.g., primary radar), while dependent surveillance requires the aircraft to either respond to an interrogation signal or periodically transmit its position — e.g., Automatic Dependent Surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B).

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Matteo Luccio

Every day, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) monitors and assists more than 45,000 flights — up to 5,000 at any one time — across the more than 29 million square miles that make up the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). It knows the position of each plane with an accuracy well within its length.

Three key NAS systems are the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), the Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR-11), and the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). They are all part of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), a large-scale FAA initiative to modernize the NAS.

ADS-B — which includes ground-based radar and navigational aids and GNSS signals — provides real-time precision, shared situational awareness, and advanced applications for both pilots and air traffic controllers. It enables pilots to see on their cockpit displays what controllers see: other aircraft in the sky.
Relying on satellites instead of ground navigational aids also enables aircraft to fly more directly between airports, reducing flight times, fuel consumption, and air pollution. Furthermore, the improved accuracy, integrity and reliability of satellite signals over radar will enable air traffic controllers to safely reduce the minimum separation distance between aircraft, thereby increasing the number of flights.

ASR-11 is an integrated primary and secondary radar system at terminal air traffic control sites. It interfaces with both legacy and digital automation systems and provides greatly improved local weather forecasts that enhance situational awareness for both air traffic controllers and pilots.

WAAS, a form of a satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS), enables the NAS to provide horizontal and vertical navigation for approach operations for all classes of aircraft in all phases of flight, including vertically-guided landing approaches in instrument meteorological conditions at all qualified locations. It may be further enhanced with ground-based augmentation systems (GBAS) in critical areas.

Through NextGen, the FAA has modernized air traffic infrastructure in communications, navigation, surveillance, automation, and information management with the aim of increasing the safety, efficiency, capacity, predictability, flexibility, and resiliency of U.S. aviation. NextGen includes airport infrastructure improvements, new air traffic technologies and procedures, and safety and security enhancements.

Now, contrast all this with the near inability of the Federal Railroad Administration — tasked with enabling the “safe, reliable, and efficient movement of people and goods” by rail across the United States — to track any of the trains that carry 28 percent of the country’s freight, including many hazardous materials, and to know what they contain. In 2023, there were more than 1,000 train derailments in the United States, most of them in railyards. The derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, a year ago, caused more than $800 million in damages and 80 percent of residents experienced health consequences. Only luck has so far prevented massive loss of life due to a derailment in an urban area. True, the FRA’s operating environment, which includes tunnels and multipath, is very different from the FAA’s, as are its regulatory challenges. Still, tracking where trains are and what they carry would be a great start to addressing the threat of toxic spills.

Matteo Luccio | Editor-in-Chief
mluccio@northcoastmedia.net

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Matteo Luccio

On December 5, in Houston, at a reception hosted by the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation to celebrate GPS’ 50th anniversary, I had the honor of publicly interviewing Dr. Bradford Parkinson for 45 minutes. When I asked him how GPS today differs from the design that emerged from the Lonely Halls meeting he chaired 50 years ago this past September, he replied, proudly, that “there is no fundamental difference.” Recently, he recalled, he pulled out for the first time in 20 years a handheld Trimble EnsignGPS — “It was one of those little devices that got shipped to the Iraq War,” he noted —, cleaned its contacts, changed its batteries, turned it on, and was immediately able to navigate. “The point of the story,” Parkinson said, “is that evidently it still works.”

When I asked him what he considered to be the most significant impact of GPS on society, he said it was “also probably the most perilous: kids today just take it for granted. They know where they are.”

Taking GPS for granted, however, is not limited to kids today. It is a pervasive attitude throughout our society, including sectors of the federal government that ought to know better. That is why a recurrent theme throughout the 29th meeting of the National Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Advisory Board, on December 6 and 7, which I attended, was raising the alarm about the fact that GPS is falling behind Galileo and BeiDou.

“We must attack this mindset [that GPS is] the Gold Standard and everything is OK. It is not OK,” said Admiral Thad Allan, a former Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, who chairs the PNT Advisory Board. Perhaps, he suggested, it is time to declare that GPS is only meeting “the Pewter Standard” for GNSS. “That will get the attention of somebody who does not understand this.”

Parkinson, in emphasizing the urgency of the problem, said that he currently counts eight areas in which GPS is falling behind its GNSS counterparts, including:

• L5, the go-to signal particularly for civilian aviation, is not yet activated and will not be until the next three satellites are activated, which will likely not happen for at least another year.
• The Next Generation Operational Control System (OCX), the future version of the GPS control segment, is not yet operational.
• GPS does not have a satellite-based high-accuracy service (HAS). On this, he said, “Everyone is moving out except us.”
• GPS lacks anti-spoofing authentication, which Galileo has.

Additionally, “every one of these things has an enormous lead time,” Parkinson warned.

“As an advisory group, we are only as effective as the willingness of the system that we are advising to act on what we say,” Allan pointed out. The Advisory Board spent the final portion of its meeting discussing how to structure the agenda and products of its next couple of meetings to get these issues with GPS the attention they deserve and require. Stay tuned.

Click to watch the full interview 

Matteo Luccio | Editor-in-Chief

mluccio@northcoastmedia.net

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